Tuesday, May 11, 2010

US Stock Futures Down; Questions EU Aid Plan






U.S. stock futures cooled off Tuesday following the rally that ensued from the European Union's nearly $1 trillion rescue package, with questions about the effectiveness of that plan as well as accelerating Chinese prices contributing to a more somber tone.

S&P 500 futures fell 10.9 points to 1146.00 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 15.5 points to 1924.00. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 80 points.

U.S. stocks rallied Monday in the best single-day showing for the S&P 500 since March 23, 2009, when the Treasury Department announced a plan to jointly invest in toxic assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each gained between 3.9% and 4.8%.

There are still questions attached to the European Union aid package announced over the weekend, notably on the funding for a euro-zone fund of 440 billion euros. The euro has come in appreciably, from as high as $1.31 to the $1.27 range on Tuesday.

"We think the euro/dollar will likely continue to trade in a rather volatile matter until all the details are clear," said strategists for Credit Suisse Private Banking. Europe stocks also fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600 falling 1.6% in mid-morning trade.

Credit-default swaps on Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland tightened for a second day. The market "is still digesting the impact of yesterday's bailout. It has bought time...but there are still doubts on whether the peripheral countries can deliver on austerity," said Gavan Nolan, vice president of credit research at Markit.

In China, data showed the fastest pace of inflation in 18 months, at 2.8%, as well as an 87% drop in its trade surplus.

"Higher than expected inflation, stronger growth in house prices and excessive bank lending indicating the need for further policy tightening and increases pressure on the People's Bank of China to appreciate the yuan," said John Meyer, a mining sector analyst at Fairfax in London.

The Shanghai Composite finished 1.9% lower. Most metals futures fell, though gold futures rose $17.80 to $1,218.60 an ounce. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell, losing 7 basis points to 3.48%, as traders moved to safer assets.

The highlights of the U.S. calendar are due after the close, with Walt Disney Co. (DIS) and Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) results and Intel Corp.'s (INTC) analyst meeting scheduled for later.

A number of companies will be making presentations at broker conferences, including a Bank of America Merrill Lynch event on healthcare and a UBS AG one on financial services.

Telefonica (TEF) dropped and Portugal Telecom SGPS (PT) rallied in Europe on the Spanish firm's $7.3 billion bid for the latter's Brazil operations.

Priceline.com Inc. (PCLN) dropped sharply in premarket trade on the travel services Web site operator's below-Street earnings outlook.

The British pound extended a decline from when U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said he would step aside in the autumn as his Labour Party entered formal negotiations with the Liberal Democrats.

Sunday, May 9, 2010

The NASDAQ Stock Market Names Stocks With Cancelled Trades





the world's largest exchange company, announced that The NASDAQ Stock Market had no technology or system issues associated with the trading that occurred on May 6th between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m. ET. The NASDAQ Stock Market operated continuously and its close process ran successfully.

In addition, there is no indication at this time that a NASDAQ market participant experienced a technological failure in connection with this event. NASDAQ has coordinated a process among U.S. Exchanges and therefore, pursuant to rule 11890(b), NASDAQ, on its own motion, will cancel all trades executed between 14:40:00 and 15:00:00 greater than or less than 60% away from the consolidated last print in that security at 14:40:00 or immediately prior. This decision cannot be appealed. NASDAQ has coordinated this decision with all other UTP Exchanges. NASDAQ will be canceling trades on the participant's behalf.

The stocks affected and the break points are posted on the following website: http://media.globenewswire.com/cache/6948/file/8216.pdf

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Japanese, Australian Stock Futures Drop on European Debt Crisis






Japanese and Australian stock futures fell amid a global rout on concern the European debt crisis will spread and halt the global recovery.

American depositary receipts of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest bank by market value, finished 4 percent lower than the Tokyo close yesterday. ADRs of Canon Inc., a Japanese camera maker that counts Europe as its largest market, lost 5.4 percent as the euro weakened against the yen. ADRs of BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s No. 1 mining company, sank 2.6 percent in Sydney as commodity prices tumbled.

“Investors are worried about whether the debt issues will be limited to the euro area,” said Juichi Wako, a strategist at Tokyo-based Nomura Holdings Inc. “There’s concern that the avoidance of spending money on risk assets will spread.”

Yen-denominated futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average expiring in June closed at 10,175 yesterday in Chicago, 4.5 percent lower than 10,655 in Singapore. They were bid in the pre-market at 10,190 as of 8:02 a.m. in Japan. The Nikkei 225 closed at 10,695.69 yesterday, its biggest drop since March 2009.

Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 3.8 percent today. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index fell 1.5 percent in Wellington.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.6 percent. The index yesterday fell as much as 8.6 percent, its biggest plunge since December 2008, before ending down 3.2 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.5 percent.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Stock Futures Gain After Sell-Off





U.S. stock index futures rose on Thursday as investors looked for buying opportunities after a sell-off that has driven the S&P 500 down 3 percent for the week.

U.S. stocks sagged Wednesday as civil unrest intensified in Greece and fears grew that the Greek debt crisis could spread to other European economies. The euro hit a 14-month low as investors shunned the debt of weaker euro zone countries and jumped into safe havens like U.S. Treasury prices and the dollar.

Investors will focus on weekly first-time claims for jobless benefits due from the Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a total of 440,000 new claims, compared with 448,000 in the prior week.

The Labor Department also releases preliminary first-quarter productivity and unit labor cost data at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists look for a rise of 2.5 percent in productivity versus a 6.9 percent increase in the prior period. Unit labor costs are expected to fall 0.7 percent compared with a 5.9 decline in the previous report.
Kraft Foods Inc is due to report quarterly results, and analysts expect earnings of 45 cents per share, unchanged from a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

S&P 500 futures were up 2.9 points and above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 20 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2.75 points.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday Europe's fate was at stake, while France declared the euro was under speculative attack but that the attempts would fail. The Greek government vowed not to retreat a single step despite violent protests against the government's plan to force spending cuts.

The European Central Bank will be under pressure on Thursday to show it can stop the Greek crisis from engulfing other euro zone member states. The central bank is expected to hold rates at a record low of 1.0 percent.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

U.S. stock market lacks conviction after another up month





Many investors "are still not convinced the recovery is for real," said Kevin Mahn, portfolio manager of the SmartGrowth Mutual Funds. He points to strong fund flows into U.S. Treasurys, typically sought as a safe place to protect principal in uncertain times, "as symbolic of where market and investor sentiment is right now.

That lack of conviction, he said, is made worse by the uncertainty that comes with sovereign debt concerns and reports of a federal criminal investigation of investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!gs/quotes/nls/gs (GS 145.20, -15.04, -9.39%) .

On Friday, the bulls turned tail, with the S&P 500 /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,187, -20.10, -1.67%) sliding 1.7% to 1,187, leaving it down 2.5% for the week as Goldman Sachs and other worries weighed, especially on the financial sector.

But the broad market gauge still gained in April, up 1.5%. That's better than April's historic average return of 1.3%, according to Stovall.

May, on the other hand, has to contend with its questionable past performance.

The S&P 500 "hasn't fared too well since 1928, as it posted a slight decline on average, ranking it only number 10 of 12 months," Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's, wrote Friday in a note.

The S&P 500 could suffer as much as a 10% to 15% correction, but the pullback would likely not bring an end to the current bull market, Stovall and his colleagues believe.

May's somewhat dismal ranking can be misleading. The index's relative performance in May has been climbing over the decades, placing in the eighth spot if one only looks back to 1945, and rising to an even loftier sixth position since 1970.

Better yet, May has been the best-performing month of the year since 1990, casting a more bullish light on the month that conjures the adage "Sell in May."


Crude-oil prices gained 2.8% in April, while gold settled at a four-month high, rising m nearly 6% during the month.

Saturday, May 1, 2010

US Stock Futures Trim Gains After GDP





U.S. stock futures trimmed their modest gains Friday after first-quarter gross domestic product grew slightly less than expected and U.S. labor costs rose incrementally.

After the report, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 5, while Standard & Poor's 500-share index futures rose less than one point and Nasdaq Composite futures edged up two points. Prior to the data, Dow futures had been up 17, while S&P futures climbed 2 and Nasdaq futures advanced 4.

The Dow is on track to close up for the third month in a row, despite some turbulent days when instability in Greece and news of the fraud charges against Goldman Sachs roiled markets. The measure has gained over 12 of the last 14 months.

The Commerce Department said Friday that the U.S. first-quarter GDP rose at a 3.2% annual rate January through March, slightly below the 3.3% growth expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. But encouragingly, the growth was driven by businesses stocking up on goods for a strengthening consumer demand stoked by the lowest core inflation number in 51 years.

Meanwhile, the employment cost index rose 0.6% in the first quarter of 2010, the Labor Department said in a report Friday. Wages and salaries grew 0.4%. Economists had expected the employment cost index would climb by 0.4%.

Indications of the global economic recovery were bleaker. Spain's jobless rate rose to over 20% in the first quarter as the euro-zone jobless rate held at 10% in March.

The euro strengthened against the dollar after Greece agreed with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union to take additional austerity measures expected to yield "around EUR23 billion" ($30 billion) as a precondition for financial assistance, a Greek official familiar with the talks on aid said.

Two weeks after the Securities and Exchange Commission filed civil fraud charges against Goldman Sachs Group, federal prosecutors in the Manhattan U.S. Attorney's Office launched their own criminal investigation into whether the company or its employees committed securities fraud in connection with its mortgage trading, sending Goldman Sachs shares down 4.3%, in premarket trading.

American depositary shares of Barclays PLC dropped 6% in premarket trades after the U.K. bank reported a 29% profit rise that disappointed analysts, particularly as the group's fixed income division didn't match some peers.

Energy giant BP PLC rose 1.1% while Transocean fell 2.6% in early premarket action, following their steep losses as analysts debate the costs from the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. BP's market capitalization has dropped by around $25 billion since a rig fire was announced.

On Friday the oil spill reached the Louisiana coast.

The White House indicated Friday that new domestic offshore oil drilling will be on hold until the investigation of the Gulf of Mexico disaster is complete.